VARIOUS: US analysts say Poland and Czech republic are ideal locations for missile defence system

With debate continuing on the merits of Poland and the Czech republic hosting a US defence system, US analysts say the locations are ideal. There has been strong opposition to the proposal for several ballistic rockets in Poland and a radar station in the Czech republic. With the Polish government intending to gather leaders of all political parties to discuss a proposal to host elements of a U.S. anti-missile shield, and large demonstrations in the Czech republic against the project, there is wide-spread debate on the US plans. The proposed defence system would include a radar station in the Czech Republic and up to 10 ground-based ballistic rockets, or interceptors, in Poland. It would be part of a multi-billion-dollar scheme to counter what Washington describes as "rogue regimes", such as Iran and North Korea. Up to 25 interceptors are to be installed this year in the United States. Analysts and diplomats say both centre-right governments in the former communist states see the U.S. system as a way of locking in a long-term strategic relationship with Washington, and that the locations are perfect for U.S. plans. "These countries are ideal because they are along the flight path that an Iranian missile, should one ever be built, would have to take. So that's where you want your radar, and that's where you want your interceptors for the best chance of intercepting that missile," said analyst, Joseph Cirincione. The proposed central European defence system would be able to detect and shoot down missiles carrying nuclear, bacteriological or chemical warheads, which the Pentagon says could be fired from Iran from 2011 or 2012. Cirincione thinks it would be longer before Iran was a nuclear threat. "We're a long way from having an Iranian threat to either Europe or the United States," he said. "Right now, Iran has short-range missiles which can travel about 1300 kilometres so they can hit Turkey but nothing else with their current range. What we are talking about is speculation that Iran might be able to develop a longer-range missile. I personally believe that they are at least a decade away from that, perhaps as many as two," Cirincione added. The missile defence plans have angered Russia, which sees it as an attempt to change the strategic balance in Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticised the plans and said Russia would come up with a "highly effective" response. Cirincione says tension between the U.S. and Russia has only compounded what he calls Russia's "ever present paranoia." "If US Russian relations were good, this wouldn't be an issue but they are not good. And so the always present Russian paranoia rises to the fore. We say we are building these bases on their borders to deter Iran from attacking the United States. The Russians don't buy it. They believe everything on their borders is about them." While neither Warsaw nor Prague sees threats now from either Russia or Iran, they are using a precautionary principle. At the back of their minds, officials say the two countries are worried about a possible long-term risk from their former Soviet masters in Russia, which could be several decades away, and about potential future missiles from the Middle East. But there has been fierce internal opposition. In Poland there is concern among junior partners of the ruling conservative Law and Justice party in the coalition government. The nationalist League of Polish Families, a member of the three-party cabinet, said such a shield, placed on Polish soil, would make the country a potential target for terrorist attack. The leftist Self-Defence party, the other coalition partner, has suggested Poland hold a referendum on the proposals. But although a majority of Poles are against placing the shield on Polish soil, according to an opinion poll published last week, the government is widely expected to accept the U.S. proposals provided it can agree terms. In the Czech republic, last Monday (January 29) thousands marched to the US embassy chanting "No to the bases." Organisers are aiming to collect enough votes to call for public referendum, which they say, is the only way to disallow the building of foreign military bases on the territory of the Czech Republic. The centre-right Czech government has agreed to talks with the US and the senior right-wing Civic Democrats back the idea in general. But the left-wing opposition Social Democrats say that while they have not taken a firm position on the issue, party members were leaning against hosting the radar and the other opposition party, the Communists, are firmly against it. The Social Democrats have called a special parliamentary session for Wednesday (February 7) to discuss the issue. The government led by right-wing Civic Democrats holds just 100 seats in the lower house of parliament, one short of an absolute majority needed to allow foreign troops on Czech soil. Approving the base would thus need opposition support. Much of the public opposition to the proposal comes from those concerned about recent history, which saw Soviet troops based in the Czech Republic from 1968 until 1991.

ITN Source | February 6, 2007

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