USA/FILE: Expectations of Middle East Peace conference in Annapolis are mixed

Analysts have mixed expectations as the small town of Annapolis, Maryland prepares for its first Middle East summit. Palestinian and Israeli leaders are scheduled to resuscitate the peace process next week for the first time in 7 years. As Israeli and Palestinian leaders prepare to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush and attempt to relaunch a peace process with a conference at Annapolis, Maryland, it remains unclear how far the conference can go to tackle the core issues in the 60-year old conflict. The United States has invited about 40 countries, including Saudi Arabia and Syria. But it does not appear likely that the one-day peace conference will tackle any of the main issues such as borders, security, settlements, the status of Jerusalem and the fate of Palestinian refugees. Some Arab countries might not attend unless they see sufficient progress has been made in preparatory talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, diplomats say. Both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appointed negotiators to write a joint document of principles for a future peace deal to be presented in Annapolis. The negotiators, however, have not been able to agree on a detailed text and a more general joint statement is expected to be released at the conference. This has left many analysts sceptical and rolling their eyes over Annapolis. "I think Annapolis is going to be a photo-op," said Jeffrey Arinson of the Middle East Institute. "I think there will be no substantive, if there are going to be as we are hearing now 30, 40, 50 countries in attendance for a day-long event there's not much time to do anything but smile. And that's the intent so there certainly won't be any hard negotiations going on, there's no framework for that and those discussions such as they are happening between Israelis and Palestinians as we speak. So this will be an opportunity for everyone to say 'yeah we like peace thank you very much'." Arinson also noted that no matter what happens in Annapolis, the U.S. administration will hail it as a success. "This will be declared a success....Whatever happens, even if they all trip and fall in the mud and are assassinated on the way. The U.S. will champion this as a success," Arinson said. But other analysts are not so sceptical. Gaith Al- Omari of The New America Foundation, is optimistic. He says Annapolis should be viewed as a good step forward and as a re-launching of peace talks. He cautioned that people should not expect major breakthroughs from Annapolis but hoped it would lead to more negotiations in the future. Dennis Ross, former Middle East peace negotiator and now at The Washington Institute for Near East Peace agrees with Al-Omari. "Annapolis is going to be an event. Events are fine if they lead to something. Events that stand on their own are not going to be very productive. So the real issue is what comes after Annapolis. What's been planned," Ross said. This will be the first time in seven years that Palestinians and Israelis will hold a Middle East peace conference. It is the first Since Camp David and a lot has changed in the Middle East since then. Besides the instability and bloody conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, Islamic groups such as Hizbollah and Hamas have also been gaining strength in Lebanon and Palestine.

ITN Source | November 24, 2007

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