LEBANON: Lebanon presidential vote seen delayed by crisis

Lebanon's parliament is due to convene on Tuesday to vote for a new president to replace pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud whose term expires on Nov. 23. But the election is likely to be postponed until October because rival leaders have yet to agree on a compromise candidate. Lebanon's ten-month political crisis now revolves around choosing a new president to succeed pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud whose term expires in November. Rifts between the anti-Syrian governing coalition and the Hezbollah-led opposition cast doubt on parliament's ability to choose a replacement for Lahoud on Tuesday (September 24), the official start of the constitutional deadline to elect a new head of state. Lebanon's 128-seat parliament elects a president, by tradition a Maronite Christian in the sectarian power-sharing system, for a six-year term. The president retains substantial powers, even though these were reduced under the Taef Agreement that ended the 1975-90 civil war. Parliament normally needs a two-thirds quorum to elect a president. A political source told Reuters that the election scheduled for this week will be postponed until October because rival leaders have yet to agree on a compromise candidate to replace Lahoud. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is also the leader of Amal, has convened a session to elect a president on Tuesday, but there is no chance of achieving a two-thirds quorum without a prior agreement between the opposing camps. Hezbollah said on Sunday its lawmakers will not attend the session in the absence of an agreement on a consensus president. "I think next Tuesday we are going to see a parliament session that largely going to be a symbolic session inaugurating a presidential election process but no really electing a president. And after that what happens is really open for speculation but it looks like more violence is on the way," said political analyst Ossama Safa. The pro-government coalition wants to ensure the next president shares its goals of keeping Lebanon free of Syrian control and backing U.N. efforts to bring the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and others to justice. Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, and its allies favour a president who will not allow Lebanon to fall under Washington's influence and fulfil U.N. Security Council resolutions. According to Safa, questions relating to ties with Syria and U.N. resolutions regarding Hezbollah are just some of the long list of sticking points dividing the two camps. "I mean if you have a strong president. A visionary leader who is able to bring people together and convince them, the public. He is someone who will have a tall order before him. The international tribunal, United Nations Security Council resolutions from 1559 to 1701 and their implementation, the borders with Syria, absolutely, the disarmament of Hezbollah or trying to find a strategy to fold it into the government, reforming several sectors including security sector, disarmament of militias inside and outside Palestinian camps, and putting the country on the economic recovery track. All of these are huge tasks before a president." Safa added. There are four declared candidates -- Nassib Lahoud, Butros Harb and Robert Ghanem for the anti-Syrian bloc known as March 14; and Michel Aoun for the opposition. But the president may well be chosen from an array of potential compromise candidates, who include Michel Suleiman, the army commander, and Central Bank Governor Riyad Salameh. Suleiman is credited for keeping the army neutral during the course of the dispute which was violent at times and also for defeating Islamist militants in a 4-month battle in a Palestinian camp earlier this month. Salameh, long-time governor of the central bank, is credited for keeping Lebanon's fragile economy from falling apart following last year's Israel-Hezbollah war and the ensuing political stalemate by keeping the Dollar-Lira exchange rate stable. The March 14 coalition insists on electing one of its own to consolidate the freedom, sovereignty and independence it says Lebanon gained after Damascus withdrew its troops in April 2005. The opposition says this would effectively put Lebanon under Western instead of Syrian tutelage. Its candidate, Aoun, was once a fierce critic of Syria, but is now allied to Hezbollah and Amal, another Syrian-backed Shi'ite faction. The two sides are evenly balanced, with the March 14 bloc holding a razor-thin majority in the assembly. Efforts to win agreement on a compromise candidate were derailed by the killing last week of another anti-Syrian lawmaker. Ghanem's killing adds to the already numerous disputes which are complicated by the links of Lebanese factions with the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and other powers vying for influence in the Middle East. Apart from settling on a compromise candidate, the challenge would be to agree a broader package deal on ending the crisis by forming a national unity government that properly represents the balance of power. If the deadlock persists -- and an opposition boycott prevents a two-thirds quorum in parliament -- the March 14 group has threatened to elect a president by simple majority. "Even before the latest killing, things were not ripe for consensus. We did not of any meeting or dialogue or any kind of consensus on presidential candidate," Safa said . The opposition, which considers Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government lost its legitimacy when all Shi'ite ministers and one Christian resigned in November, says any such move would be an unconstitutional recipe for conflict and chaos. In the midst of all this, ordinary Lebanese are growing increasingly frustrated with stalemate. And the election will not change a thing, some of them say. "There is going to be an election and there will be a president. But he won't be able to do anything and he won't change anything." said George. "I don't think there will be a presidential election, but there will more assassinations from now until November when Emile Lahoud's term ends. And the situation is getting worse and worse." Beirut resident Joe Haddad said. Lahoud has said he will refuse to hand power to Siniora's government if no president has been elected when his term expires on Nov. 23. Instead he has proposed naming Army Commander Michel Suleiman to head an interim cabinet. That would set the stage for the emergence of rival governments competing for power in a re-run of a 1988-90 experience which produced only bloodshed and disaster. A contest between two governments could split the army, provoke violence or even plunge Lebanon back into civil war.

ITN Source | September 24, 2007

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