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http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/AboutUs/MinistersAndDepartmentLeaders/ChiefMedicalOfficer/Features/DH_4102997 Risk of a human influenza pandemic ""We do not know what the virus is that will cause pandemic 'flu. What we do know is that Mother Nature has the recipe book and its just a matter of time before she starts cooking."" Sir Liam Donaldson speaking at the launch of his 2005 Annual Report, at the Royal College of Pathologists, Carlton Terrace, London, 21 July 2006. ""Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicenter in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population."" Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer, 1 March 2005 But what is a pandemic, and what causes it? We are used to epidemics of 'ordinary' flu, which occur seasonally, every year, around the world. An epidemic is a widespread outbreak of disease occurring in a single community, population or region. A pandemic, on the other hand, occurs on a much greater scale, spreading around the world and affecting many hundreds of thousands of people across many countries. Three influenza pandemics occurred in the last century - 1918 to 1919 (Spanish flu), 1957 to 1958 (Asian flu) and 1968 to 1969 (Hong Kong flu). All affected large numbers of the population, causing many deaths and huge economic and social disruption. There are three main groups of flu viruses: influenza A, B and C. Influenza B and C viruses infect people only, however, influenza A viruses have the ability to cross the species barrier and infect people, birds, and animals such as pigs and horses. Among people, influenza A is the source of most 'ordinary' flu epidemics and has caused all previous flu pandemics. Experts fear that the H5N1 subtype of avian influenza A could trigger the next pandemic, for several reasons. Firstly, it has already demonstrated an ability to infect people and cause severe disease - one of the key characteristics of a pandemic strain. Secondly, the virus has the ability to mutate and acquire genes from viruses infecting other species. Experts are concerned that the virus could either: * adapt, giving it greater affinity for humans, or; * exchange genes with a human flu virus, thereby producing a completely new virus strain capable of spreading easily between people, and causing a pandemic. Alternatively the pandemic could arise from a strain of influenza A unrelated to H5N1. By necessity, if a pandemic strain were to occur then few people, if any, would have a natural immunity to it. The World Health Authority (WHO) has developed a global alert system, based on six pre-defined phases, as a way of signaling the seriousness of the risk of an influenza pandemic. The world is presently at phase 3, where a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainability among humans.

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YouTube | February 15, 2009

Tags:. .pathologists. .epidemics. .epicenter. .carlton. .pandemics