BULGARIA: Preview of the forthcoming presidential election

Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov looks set to win a first round of presidential polls easily on Sunday (October 22) and consolidate power for his ruling Socialist allies before European Union entry next year. A vacuum in Bulgaria's right-of-centre opposition means the former leader of the ex-communist Socialists has no real challengers, analysts say, but they expect low voter turnout to force a runoff. His closest rival is Volen Siderov, leader of the nationalist Attack party, who has capitalised on voter anger at successive governments' failure to end persistent poverty, organised crime and endemic corruption. But, leading opinion polls with 44 percent to Siderov's 24, Parvanov has struck a confident tone ahead of the vote. "I will vote for Parvanov," said Ivanova from Sofia. "Because he is very intelligent person and will represent Bulgaria well in the European Union." Parvanov, 49, is considered to be the architect of the ruling coalition and a guiding force keeping the uncomfortable grouping of Socialists, centrists and an ethnic Turkish party together since 2005 elections. He has also named figures to bodies like the secret service, the media watchdog and others to extend his influence beyond the mostly ceremonial duties of his post, pundits said. Although he has tried to distance himself from his former party, experts believe the Socialists will reap higher support -- versus around 23 percent at the end of summer -- and be able to consolidate their power if he wins. A survey last week showed Parvanov was ranked highest in the Black Sea state of 7.8 million in lifting Bulgaria's image in the EU, which it will join on Jan. 1. He is also buoyed by a collapse in the right-of-centre opposition, whose bickering factions have fielded little known candidates, the most popular of whom is 78-year-old ex-judge Nedelcho Beronov with around 22 percent support. But voters disappointed that governments have failed to cut down on graft in public administration and raise wages -- which at 160 euros a month will be the lowest in the EU once Bulgaria joins -- are expected to shun ballot stations. Polls forecast turnout at 39-44 percent, below the 50 percent needed to avoid an Oct. 29 runoff. Parvanov's campaign has also not been without controversy. This summer he said he had worked briefly for Bulgaria's feared Soviet-era secret services by writing a book review for a person he later discovered to be an agent. The incident sparked outrage among right-side opposition circles. Last week, a television journalist sacked after he accused Parvanov of hiding the existence of an apartment he allegedly owned said the president had orchestrated his firing. Media were outraged, but Parvanov said he had publicly declared all his possessions.

ITN Source | October 23, 2006

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