TURKEY: The European Union is expected to issue a critical progress report on Turkey's accession talks

The European Union is once again expected to issue a critical progress report on Turkey's accession talks this week focussing mainly on human rights and the Cyprus issue. In what appears to be a last ditch attempt to soften the report, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced an apparent policy shift on Sunday (November 4), saying he was ready to change a penal code article used to prosecute writers for "insulting Turkishness". The EU said on Monday this move was likely to soften the looming crisis. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, who coined the now famous phrase about a possible train crash regarding Turkey's accession talks, responded to Erdogan's move by saying in a written statement: "The stated intention by Prime Minister (Tayyip) Erdogan to bring Turkish legislation on freedom of expression into line with European standards is a welcome initiative" and "shows that the Turkish prime minister is personally committed to free speech and EU accession" But it was not clear if this move would be enough to avert a full blown crisis not least because of the EU's failure to achieve anything to persuade Turkey to change its position on Cyprus. The Commission's report, coming out this Wednesday (November 8), will criticise a slowdown in reforms in the year since Turkey began EU membership talks and note Ankara's failure to meet a requirement to open its ports to shipping from Cyprus. Diplomats say the negative findings could prompt EU leaders to suspend, at least partially, accession negotiations with Turkey when they hold a summit on enlargement in mid-December. The Commission has repeatedly urged Turkey to change article 301 of the penal code used to prosecute journalists and intellectuals such as Nobel literature prize winner Orhan Pamuk over comments on the killing of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey. The European Parliament voted on the Eurlings report last September which criticised Turkey's for the slow pace of reforms. Camiel Eurlings demanded Turkey speed up or face the consequences warning that the EU parliament would not "sweep anything under the carpet in terms of conditions" and adding the criteria were non negotiable. Erdogan on Friday (November 3) denied the slow down. In an apparent bid to defuse the issue, he said two days later on Sunday: "We are ready for proposals to make the article 301 more concrete if there are problems stemming from it being vague." "We are studying several options for how we can handle article 301 in harmony with the spirit of the (EU-oriented) reforms," he said, without elaborating. Rehn sounded a note of caution, saying Brussels wanted to see practical action. "We expect this stated intention to be followed by concrete deeds and we are thus waiting for concrete decisions," he said. Rehn said pressure for a change in the penal code also reflected the growing strength of Turkish civil society, which was a welcome development. The Commission is also expected to criticise shortcomings in the rights of religious and ethnic minorities, civilian control over the military and persistent instances of torture. It will praise economic reforms, the training of more judges and the creation of an ombudsman to probe citizens' complaints. Erdogan said there was the political will in Turkey to make its accession talks with the EU work. But analysts and politicians in Turkey are beginning to think that there is a weakening of the political will in Europe to enable Turkey's accession. The main reason for that says the vice chairman of Turkey's Republican People's Party Onur Oymen is lack of compromise from all sides on Cyprus. "But despite the shortcomings of the government, the real motivation behind the excessive European pressures on Turkey, are coming from the lack of willingness, lack of political will in Europe to take Turkey as a full member. But on top of that there is the Cyprus issue," says the vice chair of Turkey's Republican People's party, Onur Oymen. Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister George Iacovou last June described the current period as the 'day of judgement' for Turkey. Iacovou says Turkey has been warned often enough to open its ports and airports to ships from Cyprus which Ankara does not recognise. Cyprus has the right to veto on any of the accession chapters. "We always have right to veto but I didn't want to put the union in some kind of spin and have an uncontrolled crisis," Iacovou said. Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Talat said last Friday rejected a plan put forward by Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja representing the EU presidency to hand over the ghost town of Varosha in return for direct trade with the EU from the port of Famagusta. Talat said the issue of Cyprus had to be resolved not piece by piece but in its entirety. "There are many elements of the Cyprus problem inter related with each other and if you somehow solve one portion of the Cyprus problem you may undermine the efforts for solution to the other parts," Talat says. EU leaders are under pressure from France and Austria, where public opposition to Turkey's candidacy is strongest. The Commission will argue on Wednesday that Europe's frontiers are "defined more by values than by firm geographical borders," according to a source familiar with the report. Conservative French presidential frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy called in a recent speech in Brussels for the EU to spell out its ultimate borders. He argued the EU should offer an intermediate status, which he calls a "privileged partnership", to countries such as Turkey or North African countries which in his view should never join. "I have said it before and I will say it again: I demand we suspend the opening of a new accession chapter with Turkey as long as it has not ratified and applied the Ankara protocol," Sarkozy said in Brussels last September. The EU says Turkey, which began entry talks last year, must meet a treaty obligation to open its ports to ships from Cyprus this year or face consequences for its accession negotiations. Turkey says it will only do so if the EU ends the economic isolation of northern Cyprus, as it pledged to do when the Turkish Cypriots voted in 2004 for a U.N. peace plan which the Greek Cypriots rejected. The Finnish presidency failed over the weekend to move an inch on Cyprus. No wonder then that analysts and commissioners alike are still fearing a train crash scenario this week. "So, Cyprus issue is at the moment, not to be solved. Turkish parliament, cannot accept the additional protocol as it is. And if it is leading to the interruption of the relations, than let it be. This is the general view in Turkish society," says Professor Huseyin Bagci of the METU international relations department. People in the streets are losing heart it seems with the EU's repeated objections. Recent polls have shown that 1 on 4 Turks are now opposed to EU membership and only 7 percent trust the EU "Turkey has not done what it was meant to do but now, Turkey's motivation has been broken as well. The more the EU demands the more it loses motivation," says Abidin Eroglu. "I think Turkey is working hard to achieve what it must but there are always new demands. If such demands are also made of the other candidate countries then its normal," says Zekeriya Akkaya. Amongst the few to voice a touch of cautious optimism is Jack Straw, former British Foreign Secretary who brokered the deal that allowed Turkey into the accession talks. He argues that democratisation has come a long way in the last 10 years in Turkey and that it should be rewarded with more trust as well as encouraged to continue along that path with more acceptance. otherwise, he says, the train crash will be inside Turkey itself which could lose its creeping democratic achievements faster than it took to build them. "Now Europe and the European Union has a choice: if we want further to strengthen parliamentary democracy in Turkey we continue to embrace Turkey. However if we wish to weaken democracy we push it away. It is not in Europe's interest for Turkish democracy to be weakened. Let us be clear about that," Straw said. Despite the EU's frustration and tough talk from Cyprus about blocking Turkey's talks, Ankara seems confident it can avoid a crisis when EU leaders assess the situation in December. Turkey sees itself as an important trading partner to Europe with energy transit routes and a stable democratic neighbour with the strategic importance of bordering the Middle East. However the latest European leader to blow the warning horn was Germany whose Chancellor Angela Merkel said the talks will be in serious trouble unless Ankara lifts trade restrictions against Cyprus. But with elections in November 2007, Erdogan's scope for more reforms has narrowed, especially given rising euroscepticism among Turks suspicious the bloc does not really want to take in their large Muslim nation.

ITN Source | November 7, 2006

Tags:. .deeds. .creeping. .cautious. .protocol. .soften