ROMANIA: Analysts says Romania unlikely to go to early elections

While the rift in Romania's governing coalition is making news headlines, a leading analyst says there will be no early elections and that the current political situation will make little difference to the average Romanian. The Conservative party's decision to withdraw from the government on Sunday (December 3) after policy disagreements left the senior partners, the Liberal and Democrat parties, without a majority in parliament. Prime Minister Calin Tariceanu, who also heads the Liberal party was quick to say there was no initial need for early elections. The centrist coalition, which has been fighting over policies and jobs for much of its two-year rule, had been kept together by the prospect of European Union entry. Once that milestone is met on January 1, 2007, some analysts expect the fragile coalition -- where internal rifts have deepened even among the senior parties -- may not hold, resulting in a possible government reshuffle or early elections. Elections are scheduled in two years' time. But the Democrats, linked to President Traian Basescu who has been at loggerheads with Tariceanu for months, backed the Liberals on Monday (December 4), saying they would support the cabinet. The ethnic Hungarian UDMR party, the coalition's junior partner, would also back the cabinet. Political analyst and senior editor at Romania's "Gandul" Newspaper, Cristian Tudor Popescu believes there will be no early elections. "In no case in the near future in Romania will there be early elections. It is quite possible that this minority government will be more stable than the "so called" majority government that we just had," he said, adding that the changes at the top will have little impact on the average Romanian citizen. "Nothing significant happened for the simple citizen from Romania. Everything is just a top political game, with no significance for the future of Romania." Romania is not the only country in the region to find itself in difficult political situations. Poland and the Czech Republic have suffered from the problems of minority governments. "I don't think we can speak about a symptom or a syndrome of minority governments in Eastern Europe. There are different causes, for instance between Romania and Poland. The motives causing minority governments are different and the evolution of those situations will be different," Popescu said. But for people on the streets of Bucharest, there is some concern about the current political situation. "A situation like this shouldn't happen, because we are very close to accession to the EU at the moment, and of course it doesn't look good from the outside for us to be having this kind of thing happen," said one resident. "I hope that we'll have early elections, to see another non-minority government, this is my opinion," said another. On Tuesday (December 5), Tariceanu nominated career politicians as three new ministers, in a minor reshuffle. The nominations for a deputy prime minister, the agriculture and economy portfolios, follow a string of departures from the government in recent weeks. Liberal party senator Varujan Vosganian was nnominated as new deputy premier and deputy Dan Motreanu for the post of agriculture minister. Mircea Toader, a Democrat, was proposed for the economy ministry. Vosganian was Romania's failed candidate for commissioner in the European Union's executive last month. He stepped down after criticism from some Brussels politicians and Romanian media accusations of corruption and collaboration with the communist-era secret police. Toader has worked as deputy minister in the interior ministry and was a shipping manager until 2000 before being elected as Democrat deputy. Liberal deputy Motreanu is a senior official in the lower house. The new deputy premier and the farm minister will need to be approved by the president. The economy minister will be subject to parliament approval as his post had been previously awarded to departing Conservatives. A vote is scheduled for next Monday (December 11).

ITN Source | December 7, 2006

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