POLAND: The Polish parliament is debating before a decisive vote on dissolution in order to carry out early elections

The Polish parliament is debating before a decisive vote on dissolution in order to carry out early elections in October. Polls show neither party would have enough support to form a government. Poland's parliament is widely expected to pass a motion on Friday (September 7) triggering an early election pitting the ruling conservative Kaczynski brothers against the main, pro-business opposition party. The three biggest parties favour ending parliament's term two years earlier than scheduled after the collapse of the coalition government. Polish prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose twin brother Lech is the president, wants a clear mandate for traditional social policies and a programme to rid the establishment of what he calls a corrupt post-communist elite. But markets hope for a strong showing by the centre-right Civic Platform, which wants to speed up reforms in central Europe's biggest economy, move more quickly to adopt the euro currency and patch up strained relations with EU partners. The vote was due at 1100 GMT, but has been delayed repeatedly throughout the day, as parliament began debating a series of laws that must be settled before the election. The vote is now expected at 1600 GMT. No party looks set to win enough parliamentary seats to be able to form a coalition easily, meaning staunchly Catholic Poland could be in for another spell of political turbulence before a new administration is in place. A sociologist and deputy from the Civic Platform compares the situation in parliament to the ancient sculpture of a hero, hopelessly struggling to free himself from serpents. "The essence of the Polish Laocoön group is that neither party is capable of reaching enough power in the parliament in order to form an independent government, but also neither party can enter a lasting coalition which would allow governing for a year. This should be resolved and I don't believe the upcoming elections will fulfil this as is expected," said Pawel Spiewak, a senior deputy from the Civic Platform. The situation may change by the fact that the Civic Platform might win, but it will be such a marginal victory that they will not be able to form a government and will be looking for a coalition partner. The key question for the future of Poland is who will be the coalition partner," said Spiewak with regards to the situation after the election. After trailing for months in opinion polls, the ruling Law and Justice party has started to swing back to favour and came top in a survey earlier this week. But, if Law and Justice wins most seats, it may still have trouble forming a coalition because the Kaczynskis have alienated many potential partners. A poll published on Friday gave the Civic Platform a 3-point lead and financial markets are betting it will be at the heart of a new government, with its hands on economic posts. Despite political turbulence, the economy has thrived, growing at its fastest for a decade with gross domestic product rising at about 7 percent a year. Unexpectedly high revenues mean the budget deficit could be less than half the most recent finance ministry estimate, but economists say they are worried there will be a sudden surge of spending ahead of the election. The campaign is expected to be bitter. Opposition parties accuse the Kaczynskis of abusing their position to use the state apparatus to spy on opponents and discredit them. A court said on Thursday (September 6) that last month's detention of a former interior minister, an outspoken critic of the twins, had no legal justification and one of the judges said there could have been an ulterior motive. President Lech Kaczynski's termin 2010 so even if Law and Justice loses the election, he would be in a position to obstruct the work of the new government by vetoing legislation if he chose.

ITN Source | September 10, 2007

Tags:. .budget. .delayed. .collapse. .alienated. .swing