JAPAN: Japan ruling bloc heads for loss in election

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe makes a last-ditch effort to save his party before Upper House election. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a last-ditch effort to woo voters ahead of an upper house election on Sunday (July 29) in which his ruling bloc looks set to lose its majority, a result that could cost him his job. Media projections have forecast the ruling camp to fall short of securing a majority in Sunday's election, leading to a divided parliament and political paralysis that would give Abe little room to push ahead with his conservative agenda. In a bid to turn things around and win the hearts of urban voters, many of whom are unaffiliated with any party, Abe went on a final stump tour in and around Tokyo. "The opposition, the Democrats, cannot advance reform," Abe told a crowd during his party's recent campaigning near Tokyo. In the election, half of the 242 seats in the upper house will be contested, and Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner, New Komeito, need 64 seats to keep their majority. But Japanese media surveys predict that the ruling camp will only win between 38 and 58 seats, with the LDP alone grabbing between 31 and 45 seats. Meanwhile, the main opposition Democratic Party has a shot at winning more than 60 seats on its own, which would make it the biggest party in the upper house, according to the surveys. Opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa has been stumping intensively in Japan's rural - mostly farming - villages in the weeks leading up to the election, trying to secure votes outside of big cities. "Now is the time we change the way politics is being done," Ozawa said during his recent speech on a street of Okayama, western Japan. The 52-year-old Abe became Japan's first prime minister to be born after World War Two when he took power last September, promising to boost the country's role in global security and revise the U.S.-drafted pacifist constitution. He initially enjoyed public support of around 60 percent, and in 10 months in office managed to upgrade the defence agency into a full-fledged ministry and passed legislation aimed at instilling discipline and patriotism in schools. He also won praise for making a fence-mending trip to China and South Korea within weeks of taking office and improving ties that had been frayed under predecessor Junichiro Koizumi. But a string of gaffes and corruption scandals that led two cabinet members to resign and one to commit suicide, coupled with the government's mishandling of pension records that could result in retirees being shortchanged, have halved his support ratings. "Abe may be working hard, but we don't get his messages," said Shigeno Maeda, 70, who has supported the LDP for many years. Housewife Naomi Nagai, 32, says she has also supported the LDP in the past elections, but says that this time, she isn't sure. "After the pension scandal, I may be tempted to vote for the opposition this time," Nagai said. Political analyst Minoru Morita said people in rural Japan are getting frustrated with Abe's government and that's where opposition leader Ozawa is cashing in on. "Peoples living standards in rural Japan have deteriorated over the past few years. People are suffering, but Abe does not seem to be able to feel that pain," Morita said. Abe need not step down for an upper house loss as the ruling bloc holds a majority in the more powerful lower house, which chooses the prime minister, but he would face strong pressure within the LDP to resign should the party fail to win 40 seats, analysts have said. A divided parliament would mean laws would be difficult to pass, and the political confusion may force Abe to call an early election for the lower house, which need not be held until 2009, and open the way for a change of government. Such a scenario would be a nightmare for the LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the past five decades and only two years ago scored a massive victory under the popular Koizumi.

ITN Source | July 28, 2007

Tags:. .standards. .lower. .crowd. .aimed. .commit