JAPAN: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition braces for election blow

Japanese head for the polls in the upper house election, with the prime minister facing the possibility of a hefty loss. Japan's conservative ruling camp braced for an expected election defeat on Sunday (July 29) that could put pressure on hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to resign and usher in a period of policy paralysis and political confusion. The election for half the seats in parliament's 242-member upper house comes just 10 months after Abe, 52, took over and pledged to bolster Japan's global security profile, rewrite its pacifist U.S.-drafted constitution, and nurture economic growth. The LDP and its junior partner, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, need to win 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house. The New Komeito is aiming for 13 seats. Hoping to woo those hit by market-friendly reforms, opposition Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa -- a pugnacious veteran who bolted from the LDP 14 years ago -- has pledged to shrink income gaps and ensure the weak are not neglected. Ozawa, 65, has said he will step down as party leader and not run for parliament again if the opposition fails to win this time. He has made campaigning in the rural areas one of his top priorities this election, hoping to breakthrough into the heartland of LDP support. Voting kicked off on Sunday relatively strongly, with initial voter turnout slightly higher than in the previous upper house election in 2004. The turnout of absentee ballots ahead of Sunday's elections was also strong and heading for a record - though local media are split as to whether that was because many people voted early in order to avoid missing out on the elections due to their summer holidays or festival engagements. The ruling camp will not be be ousted from government if it loses in the upper house, since it has a huge majority in the more powerful lower chamber, which elects the premier. But laws will be hard to enact, threatening policy deadlock. Abe's allies have said he need not step down even if the coalition loses and many analysts agree he might be able to hang on temporarily -- especially if the LDP wins at least 40 seats -- partly because of the lack of a convincing successor. Many voters were aware of this issue. " Whether (Prime minister Shinzo) Abe resigns or not over these elections is pointless as long as the Liberal Democratic Party holds two-thirds of the lower house of parliament. I think the point is how much he will learn from these elections," Koh Katsuki, a 28-year-old voter, said after voting mainly for one of the smaller non-ruling parties. "I voted for people that I believed would be able stand up to the current government," added Yoko Fukuda, a voter who said she was in her mid-forties and preferred to keep her votes to herself. Even those who said they voted for the LDP, were critical of the current government. "It's hard to make a choice this time, with the people supposed to be leading Japan ahead in the Liberal Democratic Party making such careless comments. There are valid criticisms, but from their long-term achievements I still think it's up to the Liberal Democratic Party," said Shinji Takahashi, a 66-year-old voter who remained an LDP supporter. For some, the one-week postponement of the original election date is also expected to have had a negative effect on the turnout of voters, especially the young. "It's not that I have no interest, it's just that my holiday plans had been decided ahead of time and these elections were delayed by a week. So it ended up that I couldn't vote," said Momoko Tone, a 29-year-old tourist from the provinces visiting the Ginza shopping district in Tokyo. And while early turnout was strong on Sunday, it is still unclear how younger Japanese -- who traditionally vote later in the day -- will vote. An Internet poll of voters in their 20s and 30s by the Asahi Shimbun daily on July 19-23 found that 59 percent of respondents did not think their one vote would make a difference and many people that Reuters spoke to on the streets of Ginza on Sunday said they really didn't know who to vote for. "We just don't know who to vote for, there are so many political parties. And I really don't know which party is best to lead Japan in the future. So as I don't understand it well, rather than casting a blank ballot, I'd rather not vote," added 26-year old Yuka Imai, who is being pressured by her father to go and vote and may reluctantly do so. Doubts about Prime minister Abe's leadership abilities were fanned earlier this year by a series of gaffes and scandals that led two cabinet members to resign and one to commit suicide, as well as revelations that the government had lost track of millions of premium payments. Still, pressure to resign is expected to grow if the coalition suffers a crushing defeat and some analysts and politicians say a deadlock could spark an early election for the lower house. But with a massive majority in the chamber, the ruling camp would be wary of taking that risk. No general election need be held until 2009.

ITN Source | July 29, 2007

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