BULGARIA: Bulgaria is experiencing serious depopulation with villages being hit the hardest

The streets of many Bulgarian villages are deserted, the people gone and the factories closed. Bulgaria is one of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe with the most noticeable demographic decline. An estimated one hundred and ten villages have a population rate of zero, a trend that is set to become increasingly problematic for the country. The effects are plain to see all over Bulgaria where villages have been abandoned and only crumbling buildings remain. The Zheravino village has plenty of examples of an era gone by, and its sole inhabitant Ivan Stoev has lost all hope that it will ever change. "I am the last and only villager of Zheravino," said Stoev and added, "Occasionally other people come on Sundays, but during the winter nobody comes here." There is no evidence of the trend turning, on the contrary, the decrease in population has been a long-term problem that only accelerated with the insecurities brought about by the end of the communist era. According to statistics provided by the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute, the Bulgarian population totalled 8,669,269 in 1990 and by 2005 it had decreased to 7,718, 750 almost 20 percent drop in less than two decades. Should the current trend proceed, the Population Reference Bureau, a nongovernmental organisation in Washington, have projected that Bulgaria's population will decline by a further 34 percent from 2005 to 2050, from 7.7 million to 5 million. An increase in the death rate and a drop in the birth rate were the main characteristics of the 1970s and the 1980s in terms of demographic trends. In the early 1990's the death rate started exceeding the birth rate taking growth of the country to a negative value. Villages were the first and hardest hit by depopulation, predominantly due to old inhabitants and low birth rates. "Nobody will come back to live here any more, it is for sure," said Stoev. However, by the mid-nineties it became a fact in towns and cities as well, with large scale of emigration, particularly among the young and skilled workers which contributed further to the country's "demographic collapse". Currently the majority of the emigrant population in Bulgaria is aged 20 - 35 years, resulting in great loss of human capital, especially considering that people with higher education and qualifications are most likely to emigrate. "The depopulation affects young people the most, they are leaving Bulgaria because they can't support themselves here," said Emilia, an old woman living in the deserted part of the town of Radomir. Yordan Kalchev, Head of Population Statistics at the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute agrees there are difficulties with the population demographics of the country. "In the last 30 years the fertility rate has declined and for some time the mortality rate increased. As a result, growth in population became negative. Additionally high emigration rate aggravated the situation," he said. According to the International Herald Tribune the characteristic two children per mother belongs to the past, the Bulgarian fertility rate - the average number of children per woman- is now 1.3 children per family. However, young mother Marieta says the trend is more positive than that. "The birth-rate is increasing, it is obvious - by the increasing number of baby prams, woman's bellies and everyone is saying that the maternity ward in the hospital is full with pregnant women, new mothers and babies. A pram was a rare sight in Radomir, but now there are more and more. The people were fed up with waiting for things to improve and decided to go ahead with the children, no matter how difficult it is," Marieta said. Another woman Nadya also dismisses the notion of low birthrates. "In comparison with previous years there is a baby boom in Bulgaria and in Radomir at the moment. There are a lot of pregnant women and mothers with babies too," Nadya said. Causes for the gradual decline of the country's population is deeply rooted in the instability faced by Bulgarians over the past 30 years and the trend is only set to continue as long as young people feel insecure about their financial future. For the nation to revert the trend of an ageing population, high emigration and low fertility, policies will need to be implemented to give citizens incentives to stay in their country and raise large families at home. "I don't think I will have another baby soon. I do not feel prepared financially and emotionally. Maybe I am too cautious," said Marieta before going home with her only child.

ITN Source | November 2, 2006

Tags:. .boom. .factories. .tribune. .scale. .negative