ECUADOR: Presidency headed for November run-off between conservative tycoon and leftist ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

After a tight weekend election, the battle for Ecuador's presidency was headed for a November run-off between a conservative tycoon who favors close links to the United States and a leftist ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Magnate Alvaro Noboa, one of Ecuador's wealthiest men with holdings in bananas, coffee and banking, led former finance minister Rafael Correa after Sunday's (October 15) vote, but neither had won an outright victory, according to preliminary results. The market-friendly Noboa won about 27 percent of votes and the leftist Correa 22 percent, according to preliminary results from more than 70 percent of ballot boxes. Both were far short of the percentage needed to avoid a second round. Under Ecuadorean law, candidates need more than 50 percent of the votes or 40 percent of votes with a 10-percentage point advantage over the nearest rival to win the presidency in the first round. The run-off will be held on Nov. 26. An outsider who studied economics in the United States, Correa, 43, soared in the polls as Ecuadoreans were captivated by his promises to sweep away the political old guard with a "citizens' revolution." Correa said he had been the victim of voting irregularities and a campaign of dirty tricks. But he urged his supporters to secure a solid second-round victory. "The secret - please if somebody could find me the OAS report - says that the software was not verified. In other words, it could be a scanned software that says when Correa has ten votes take away two and give him eight and send them to the candidates that they want to help. And on the basis of that software that hasn't even been verified, is how they are informing the country on the elections. Gentlemen, Alianza Pais has won the elections. They want to steal the elections," he said. But Noboa denied any accusations of fraud on Monday (October 16). "I am fraud's biggest enemy, let them check ballot by ballot and if there is something unusual, let them open the voting again because I would win more votes," Noboa told reporters during an impromptu news conference in his home. Political analysts expect Noboa's momentum to carry to the second round as he secures backing from traditional parties opposed to Correa's proposal to disband Congress and said the left-wing economist would struggle to regain his footing. The standoff between the left-winger and market-friendly billionaire reflected the ideological battle in Latin America, where Chavez is seeking allies for his socialist campaign to counter Washington's influence. Correa's calls for debt restructuring, disbanding Congress and the ouster of U.S. troops based in Ecuador have stoked concerns on Wall Street and in Washington that Ecuador could face more economic and political instability. Ecuadoreans have turned away their traditional politicians after years of turmoil and corruption in the Congress. Three presidents have been forced out in popular unrest in the last decade, the latest in April 2005. Not many voters seem very excited about the run-off. "I am pessimistic.The people continue being immature, voting for the novelty. I am pessimistic," said voter, Marco Coral. "Although they are different, I don't believe either will be an option for the country. Neither of the two," said voter Alexandra Enriquez. The second round would be a tough contest between candidates offering populist platforms on different ends of the political spectrum: a left-leaning reformer challenging the establishment and a conservative, free-marketeer. Hundreds of Correa supporters rallied outside the electoral court to protest fraud after Correa complained he was victim of voting irregularities and a campaign of dirty tricks. But foreign observers said they had found no evidence of fraud. The results of Sunday's parallel congressional election have still not been released. But the legislature will likely be fractured among Noboa's Prian party, the traditional Democratic Left, the Social Christians and a group of small independent parties. If he wins the presidency without a strong popular mandate, Correa could clash with the congress and struggle to push his reformist agenda while Noboa could be in a better position to negotiate with other parties.

ITN Source | October 17, 2006

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